ISON 彗星沒有增光是瓦解前的先兆 ?

mca

哥倫比亞的 Ferrin 比較同類光變曲線的一些彗星後，分析數據後所得的結果：
http://astronomia.udea.edu.co/cometspage/

Here is extraction from his report:

4. CONCLUSIONS

a. At about 2.9 AU from the Sun, the comet has begun to increase in brigtness.   However this does not mean that the comet is safe from disintegrating.  

b. At about 2.9 AU the comet is starting to respond to the temperature increase after 5 months of ignoring it.

d. The comet exhibits a Slope Discontinuity Event + U-Shape previously exhibited by four disintegrating comets: Hönig, Tabur, Elenin and LINEAR, which allows us to conclude that the disintegration of ISON is for real.

e.  The secular light curves of comets exhibit complexity beyond current scientific understanding.  

We must emphasize that if the comet evolves into a great sight, it is fine.  But if it disintegrates, it is fine too, because Science will have a chance to see the phenomena in great detail.  We are watching the dead of a comet  !   And we are learning that it is not a suddent affair.  It takes some time.  Science does not take sides.  Science watches, and then arrives at conclusions.

(註： 天文學家都以科研為宗旨，今次的 ISON 沒有預期的增光，反而是難得的科研機會)

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Comet ISON 相片在今天 (2013.10.07) 的 http://spaceweather.com/